How to get what you want

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3 Thoughts

I.

If you feel stuck, I strongly encourage you to wake up one hour earlier and dedicate that hour to working on the one thing you believe will drive your life forward the most.

II.

The better you become, the more you can do.

But just because you can do it, doesn’t mean you should do it.

Remember. As the late Charlie Munger once said, “never interrupt compounding unnecessarily.”

III.

Your entire life will change the moment you start making decisions based on what needs to be done not how you feel in the moment.

2 Quotes

I.

Benjamin Franklin on loremaxxing:

"If you would not be forgotten as soon as you are dead, either write something worth reading or do something worth writing."

II.

"Good writing is clear thinking made visible."

— Bill Wheeler

1 Game-Changing Idea: North Star Filter

We're constantly bombarded by a never-ending onslaught of decisions. We've never had so much access to so many things all at once. Everything feels important and urgent.

There's so much noise, so how do you find the signal?

You create a “North Star Filter”.

A North Star Filter is a question or set of questions you can ask yourself that allows you to filter every other decision through that lens. It acts as your “North Star”.

Here’s mine:

I like this frame because it simplifies so many decisions.

• Should I go to that party or stay in and study?

• Should I wake up early and work out or sleep in?

• Should I take that internship at the big corporation or join that tech startup?

When you're faced with a choice, you just ask:

If you view life as a series of inputs, outputs, and probabilities, you tend to win more.

It's probabilistic thinking.

I also like this frame because you can work backwards from it. Once you know what you want, you can ask, “What would increase the likelihood I get it?”

A few examples:

• Does clearly defining what I want—and writing it down—increase the likelihood I get it? Probably.

• Does finding others who already have what I want, getting close to them, and learning from them increase the likelihood I get it? Probably.

• Does defining what habits will get me closer to my goals and then sticking with them consistently increase the likelihood I get it? Probably.

• Does working out, being fit, and having high energy increase the likelihood I get it? Probably.

• Does adopting a weekly writing habit and reflecting on whether I'm still on course for my goals increase the likelihood I get it? Probably.

You see where I’m going with this?

A few examples of other North Star Filters you can use:

• "Will this matter in 10 years?" Filters out short-term anxiety and helps you stop sweating small decisions. Useful when you're agonizing over something that feels high-stakes in the moment but probably isn't.
  

• "What would I do if I knew I couldn't fail?" Exposes when fear is the real reason you're hesitating. If your answer changes dramatically, that's a signal you're playing it safe.
  

• "Is this a 'hell yes' or a no?" (From Derek Sivers.) Forces you to stop saying yes to things you're lukewarm about. If you're not excited, it's taking space from something you could be.
  

• "What would the person I want to become do?" Ties every decision to your identity, not just your goals. Useful for habit-building—you're not just asking "should I work out?" but "am I someone who works out?"
  

• "Am I running toward something or away from something?" Distinguishes between motivated action and avoidance. Taking that job because it excites you vs. taking it because you're scared of the alternative are very different.
  

• "What's the downside if I'm wrong?" Asymmetric risk filter. Some decisions have capped downside and unlimited upside—those are worth taking even if the odds aren't great.

So if you feel lost, stuck, or uncertain, I strongly recommend you create a North Star Filter for yourself.

Until next week,
Jay “Think In Probabilities” Yang

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